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10/10/2008

Can the Eagles Beat San Fran?

Two teams in need of wins play on Sunday with the winner staying very much alive in the early-season picture and the loser with almost no margin for error the rest of the season. The Eagles have lost two straight games and are searching for answers. An inconsistent offense coupled with a defense that has had trouble getting off the field on third down has sent the Eagles tumbling for two successive weeks. In Chicago, the Bears converted 7 of 17 third downs and then the Redskins converted 11 of 19 chances on third down – plus a fourth-down conversion – to keep the Eagles defense on the field. Offensively, the Eagles ran just 47 plays in the 23-17 loss to Washington. Philadelphia jumped out to a 14-0 lead and then went nearly 30 minutes without a first down. Clearly, the offense is in a funk and now the team could be without running back Brian Westbrook, who won’t know until Sunday if he can play with two fractured ribs. Defensively, the Eagles ranked first in the NFL in yards allowed on the ground until Washington gained 203 yards last week. San Francisco’s Frank Gore leads the league in yards from scrimmage with 607. He is a dual threat as a running back and as a receiver out of the backfield.
Donovan McNabb's yards-per-attempt average has plummeted from 9.2 in the first two games to 6.2 in the last three. He threw the ball downfield just once last week, and that was to a running back (Lorenzo Booker). He's also been more reluctant than ever to run (four rushing attempts in the last three games). Eagles wideouts caught 62 passes in the first four games, but just seven against the Redskins. They have only two TD catches. TE L.J. Smith needs to become more involved in the passing game. He has just nine catches, four since Week 1. He caught two passes on the first possession last week, then just one more. This coupled with the likely absence of injured Brian Westbrook weakens a offense that already has been struggling. The Eagles, who have run the ball on just 41 of 114 offensive plays the last 2 weeks, are 29th in yards per carry (3.5). Look for defensive tackle Dan Klecko to get more fullback reps. Also the Eagles have given up just 10 sacks, but seven have come in their two games against the same 3-4 scheme they're going to see a lot Sunday. Niners registered five sacks last week vs. New England. Eagles also haven't run the ball very well against the 3-4 this season (3.1 yards per carry). Or against the 4-3, for that matter. (as I already pointed out the Eagles strugle against 3-4 defences). The Eagles won at San Francisco on Sept. 24, 2006, 38-24. The 49ers lead the series, 17-9-1.
Despite all of these problems the Eagles have been close in the games that they have lost. It's how they finish that is costing them games. Sunday is another test to the finish line -- both in the first half and at the end of the game. A season depends upon how much kick the Eagles have around the final turn of each half. The Eagles work on this stuff every day. They understand the numbers and the situations and the lack of success they are having then. It's something to watch, then. How will the Eagles start on the road? They didn't start well in Chicago, for sure. They fell behind in Dallas, but made a strong push to take a lead. Yeah, they need to get off the right way in San Fran. Offensively, the Eagles have to make some plays. I don't even know what to say. Run the ball? Sure, if it works. Spread the field and throw it? Anything that moves the chains. Anything. Literally. The Eagles are leaving points on the field, not because they are mis-managing the clock or botching timeouts, but they are squandering field position and a chance to put points on the board, and let's be honest here: The Eagles aren't good enough to do that. This is a team that needs every point and every shred of momentum and positive feeling and it is just not happening late in the second quarter and at the end of the games. Finish strong. It is the motto of every person who has every participated in any sporting event. Start fast and finish strong. As the Eagles move forward and take an optimistic and aggressive approach the rest of the way to make something special of this 2008 season, they need to win the battle at the end of each half, something they haven't done.
Do I think they can win? Sure. Do I think they will? I really don't know.
Matchups to watch this week:
  • Eagles DE Juqua Parker vs. 49ers OT Barry Sims
  • Eagles KO coverage team vs. 49ers return man (and former Eagle) Allen Rossum
  • Eagles SS Quintin Mikell vs. 49ers TE Vernon Davis

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